Seminar May 12: From role change to policy change: EU member states and change in EU foreign policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
🎤Tyyne Karjalainen, Research Fellow in the European Union research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs – FIIA (FIIA)
📅May 12, 15:15-17:00
🏢Zoom: https://lnkd.in/ejcufBbr
Abstract: Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has led to a fundamental rethinking of EU foreign policy, including enlargement, security and defence and energy policy. This lecture builds on a recent article published in the Journal of European Integration and analyses the EU policy shift as an outcome of the member states’ co‑constitutive role changes: abandoning opposition to enlargement, renouncing the energy partnership with Russia, and the military turn. It shows that these changes remain contested and highly context-specific, limiting outcomes of the EU policy shift. While the EU is increasingly expected to implement its new defence agenda, the member states’ objectives remain fragmented. In enlargement policy, the member states’ role changes are not sufficient for enlargement to materialise.
Tyyne Karjalainen is a Research Fellow in the European Union research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) since 2020, and a doctoral researcher in political science at the University of Turku since 2021. Her research focuses on European security, Ukraine, the EU’s foreign and security policies, and EU enlargement. She has also published on peacebuilding, crisis management, and peace mediation. Her work has appeared in several peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of European Integration, European Journal of International Security, The International Spectator, and Contemporary Social Science.
In an era of resurgent multipolar competition, a fundamental update to our understanding of the reemerging concept of Spheres of Influence (SOIs) is needed. This analysis introduces the “Multi-Modal Sphere of Influence” (MMSOI) as a new analytical framework, positing that contemporary great powers project influence not just via coercion, but through a dynamic interplay of five modalities: military, economic, institutional, normative, and digital. This framework is used to deconstruct the intractable EU-Russia conflict in their “shared neighborhood” by bridging macro-, meso-, and case-level findings. At the macro-level, the core of the conflict is defined by different modalities of competition; this is not a symmetrical power struggle, but a structural clash between incompatible toolkits: the EU’s dominant normative, institutional, and economic modalities colliding with Russia’s reliance on its coercive-military and energy-based toolkit. This overlapping, multi-modal contestation creates, at the meso-level, a paradoxical environment for “in-between” states, granting them new avenues for hedging and agency while simultaneously exposing them to acute risks of coercion and conflict. Finally, the analysis unpacks the EU’s paradoxical role as an “antithetical actor.” While normatively rejecting SOIs, the EU’s institutional and regulatory expansion functions as a powerful, sui generis SOI-building tool, making it an unintentional geopolitical player. This synthesized approach explains the EU-Russia competition not merely as a regional dispute, but as a microcosm of 21st-century multi-modal, multipolar contestation.
